Why Gold's Biggest Move Isn't Bullion

There's a man I follow, a contrarian's contrarian, who's spent four decades calling the biggest macro shifts before the crowd even knew there was a crowd.

He doesn't manage a hedge fund. He doesn't go on CNBC. He publishes a weekly research letter that lands in the inboxes of some of the most sophisticated institutional investors on the planet.

In a recent issue, he wrote:

"Historically, gold mining shares increase 2x-3x the increase in gold bullion during secular bull markets."

Gold bullion is sitting near $5,000 an ounce. If his secular thesis plays out, and the evidence is stacking up in that direction, bullion could hit $10,000 by the end of the decade.

At $10,000 gold, the miners at 2x-3x leverage turn into generational winners. This pattern has repeated across every major gold cycle in modern history.

During the last secular bull from 2000 to 2011, bullion rose roughly 650%. The miners multiplied that move 2x-3x, turning every $1 into $13 to $20 for those who held on.

The setup today may be even stronger: central banks hoarding at a pace we haven't seen in decades, the dollar weakening, and the entire global monetary architecture cracking at the seams.

The Shakeout That Separated the Tourists from the Holders

A few weeks ago, gold sentiment cratered. The Daily Sentiment Index hit 15 for gold and 19 for silver, down from the high 80s just weeks earlier.

If you've been in this game long enough, you recognize that kind of washout. The leveraged longs got carried out on stretchers. The tourists left. And the asset quietly changed hands from the shaky to the steadfast.

That same researcher called it in late March: "If the low in gold isn't in, we would be surprised. A test is possible but not essential. More important is what is likely to happen on the other side of the recent bearish trend."

He was right. Gold bounced. The miners bounced harder.

His Gold Miners Index is up 24.2% year-to-date. His high-growth exploration index, which focuses on earlier-stage companies, is up 18.5%. The S&P 500 is up 2.7%.

Since year-end 2024, that same high-growth exploration index has appreciated 250%, versus 85% for gold bullion. That's a 3-to-1 ratio, right in line with the historical pattern. And we're still in the early innings.

Four Tailwinds That Didn't Exist in 2011

I grew up in a household where money caused stress. My parents didn't talk about central bank reserves or the petrodollar. They talked about making rent.

When I tell you the global monetary system is fracturing, I'm telling you from decades of studying what happens to regular people when the system they trust stops working.

• Central banks are buying gold as national security infrastructure. 

China's central bank purchased 160,000 ounces in March, its largest monthly buy in over a year. China's official gold holdings, at roughly 10% of reserves, are still less than half the global average. The accumulation has room to run.

• The petrodollar system is under siege. 

The conflict in Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the growing reluctance of Gulf states to rely on U.S. security guarantees are eroding the 50-year-old arrangement that kept the dollar dominant.

Deutsche Bank's Mallika Sachdeva says Gulf states could re-evaluate their U.S. security relationship, localize their defense arrangements, and redeploy their substantial dollar savings elsewhere. The Financial Times ran a column yesterday titled "The Iran War Will Damage the Petrodollar."

• Foreign governments are dumping Treasuries and buying gold. 

Since the bombing of Iran began in late February, central banks and international investors have sold more than $80 billion net in U.S. Treasuries.

The gold share of global central bank reserves now roughly matches Treasuries, with both hovering in the low-20% range. The U.S., Germany, France, and Italy already hold well over 60% of their reserves in gold.

• The U.S. dollar is entering what appears to be a long-term downtrend. 

When the dollar weakens, commodities rise. When commodities rise, the miners sprint. The math is simple and unforgiving.

Even Türkiye's recent gold sales prove the thesis. The central bank sold 52 tons in March to raise dollar liquidity. It had bought aggressively from mid-2023 through 2024 at an average of $2,300. Gold has since more than doubled. Try getting that return from a Treasury bill.

Gold Prices Doubled. Supply Grew 1%.

Gold mine supply in 2025 grew only marginally despite prices nearly doubling in 18 months. Total supply rose just 1% year-on-year to 5,002 tonnes. Recycling increased only 3%.

The price doubles. And the mines can barely produce more.

You can't flip a switch and produce more gold. It takes years, sometimes a decade, to bring a new mine online. The permitting alone can outlast most people's attention spans. (Which, in the age of TikTok, is saying something.)

Central banks with explicit allocation targets don't reduce purchases when prices rise. They need fewer tonnes to hit the same dollar percentage.

When prices correct, they accelerate. The result is a structural floor beneath gold that speculative selling cannot easily overwhelm.

David Zaikin, founder of the strategic consultancy Key Elements Group, put it this way:

"States under budgetary stress are selling. States with strategic flexibility are accumulating. The sales are episodic and forced. The buying is structural and deliberate."

The miners sitting on top of this supply-constrained, demand-surging market are some of the most asymmetric opportunities I see right now.

Foundation Plays vs. Leverage Plays

I'm not naming specific tickers here. That's for Premium Members, but I can show you what I’m looking for.

The mature, free-cash-flow-generating gold miners are the foundation. They pay dividends, they print money at $5,000 gold, and they function like toll roads on the highway to monetary chaos.

The real leverage lives in the earlier-stage exploration and development companies, the ones sitting on world-class deposits that haven't been fully defined yet.

Here’s a couple I’m looking at. I’m not ready to recommend them to Premium Members yet, but my team and I are digging into the research.

One company is drilling a high-grade gold system in a tier-one Western jurisdiction, with meaningful byproduct credits from a critical mineral that China dominates.

Their hit rate on high-grade intercepts is an order of magnitude above industry norms. They've tested only a fraction of a multi-kilometer mineralized trend. They're fully funded for years of drilling without dilution risk.

Once the byproduct credits are factored in, their all-in sustaining costs could run at roughly a quarter of the industry average. At $5,000 gold, that's a license to print money. At $10,000 gold, it's something else entirely.

Another company just had a major senior miner take a significant equity stake in their business as a vote of confidence.

They control a district-scale land package on a prolific gold belt, with established mining infrastructure nearby and a leadership team that has a track record of building and selling companies at scale. The stock trades at a steep discount to its closest peers on a net asset value basis.

At these prices, with this macro backdrop, some of these names are trading at a fraction of what they're worth.

Do You Own Any Hard Assets?

"Gold is already near all-time highs. Isn't it too late?"

If gold goes to $10,000, and the macro evidence suggests it can, miners at 2x-3x leverage from current prices are a long way from late.

Secular bull markets punish the impatient and reward the convicted. March's selloff was the shakeout, the sentiment washout, and the setup.

Look at your portfolio right now. Do you own any hard assets? Actual, scarce, physical-world assets, or the companies that produce them.

If the answer is no, you're exposed. You're sitting in a system that's printing money, fighting wars, and watching its reserve currency status erode in real time, and you own none of the things that benefit from that chaos.

Gold miners are a hedge against the world we're actually living in. Right now, the market is giving you a window to get positioned before the next leg higher.

The Bottom Line

The secular bull market in gold is accelerating. Central banks know it. Sovereign wealth funds know it. The smartest institutional researchers on the planet know it.

Gold mining stocks, especially the high-quality exploration plays sitting on world-class deposits, offer the kind of asymmetric upside that comes around once or twice in an investing lifetime.

Historically, miners multiply the move in bullion 2x-3x. Current supply constraints mean the floor is rising even as demand accelerates, and the macro tailwinds are only getting stronger.

The Framework Is Free. The Tickers Aren't.

I just gave you the macro case, the supply-demand setup, and the two types of opportunity that matter most in this cycle. That framework is yours.

What I didn't give you: the tickers, the entry prices, the position sizing, the stop levels, and the alerts when something changes. That’s for Premium Members.

Over the past twelve months, Premium Members have seen:

• 11 closed trades, all winners.

• Average closed trade gain: +68%.

• 5 closed winners crossed the 100% mark.

• 6 positions currently on Moonshot Ride, running on house money after initial capital was recovered.

• 5 open positions up triple-digits as of today.

The two names I briefly touched on in this essay are being researched for inclusion in the Premium portfolio. I have entry prices, sizing, and the exact conditions I'll use to scale in or take profits.

That goes out to members very soon.

And one more thing. Earlier this week, I made an announcement.

The price of Moonshot Minute Premium is going up soon. I haven't locked the exact date, but the decision has been made. Every current Premium member is grandfathered at their current rate. Anyone who joins before the price increase is also grandfathered in. Once the new price goes live, the old rate is gone.

If you've been thinking about upgrading, the waiting window is closing.

Don't wait for the crowd. The crowd is always late.

Double D

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