We Just Got Bought Out

Last October, I told Premium Members to buy Foran Mining (FMCXF), a small copper-zinc mining company that almost nobody was watching.

It was a developer in pre-production, with no revenue, and building a mine called McIlvenna Bay in Saskatchewan that was about 56% complete. The kind of stock Wall Street ignores until it's too late.

The market valued the entire company at roughly $1.2 billion, and we got in at $2.80 per share.

Four months later, on February 2nd of this year, Eldorado Gold, a major gold producer with operating mines across three continents, announced it was acquiring Foran for C$3.8 billion. That's approximately $2.8 billion USD.

A billion-dollar company came knocking and wrote a check that more than doubled the company's valuation from our entry.

As I write this, that stock is sitting at roughly $3.97. That's a 42% gain in under six months.

And today, I'm issuing a sell alert to Premium Members: we're closing the trade and booking the win.

I'm sharing this today because what happened here isn't just a good trade. It's a case study in the thesis we've been building together for over a year.

And I want you to understand exactly why it matters for what comes next.

What Happened

Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO) agreed to acquire Foran Mining in an all-stock deal. For every share of FMCXF our subscribers held, they'll receive 0.1128 shares of Eldorado Gold plus a penny in cash.

ISS, the world's largest proxy advisory firm, whose recommendations institutional investors routinely follow, and the Foran board recommended approval.

The proxy voting deadline is April 2nd, and the shareholder vote is scheduled for April 7th. The deal is expected to close in Q2 of this year.

Once it closes, Foran gets absorbed into a larger, diversified gold-copper producer with real cash flow, a brand new dividend, and a production ramp targeting 900,000 gold-equivalent ounces and $1.5 billion in free cash flow by 2027.

The original thesis was a pre-production copper play with asymmetric upside. A major producer just validated that thesis and removed the risk.

The moonshot landed. Time to book it and redeploy.

Why This Matters More Than the 42%

As much as I love double-digit winners like this, that’s not the real story. The real story is what this deal tells you about where the world is heading.

One of the largest gold miners looked at the landscape and decided it needed copper exposure so badly that it was willing to pay $2.8 billion for a mine that hasn't shipped its first concentrate yet.

They didn't buy a producing mine. They bought a construction site. Because they believe the copper coming out of that ground over the next decade is worth paying a premium for today.

That's the commodity supercycle thesis in action, and I’ve been covering it since April of last year.

The Copper Thesis: Updated

Since we first recommended this position last October, the copper story has only gotten louder.

J.P. Morgan is now projecting a global refined copper deficit of approximately 330,000 tonnes in 2026. Citi sees prices potentially pushing past $13,000 per tonne. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper reaching $15,000 per tonne by 2035.

But here's the part most investors still aren't paying attention to:

The United States government has declared copper a national security priority.

Last August, President Trump imposed 50% Section 232 tariffs on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives.

And by June 30th of this year, the Commerce Department must deliver a report to the President on whether to impose additional phased tariffs on refined copper, with a 15% rate starting in 2027, rising to 30% by 2028.

Here, in plain view, the US government is actively debating whether to make it significantly more expensive to import refined copper into the United States.

If you've been reading this newsletter, none of this surprises you. We've been saying for almost a year that the world runs on physical materials, not software.

That you can't code your way out of a copper shortage.

That AI's biggest bottleneck isn't chips, or code… it's the metal that carries the electricity to power those chips.

Every AI data center requires massive amounts of copper.

A single facility can consume over 2,000 tonnes for just 50 megawatts of capacity. Every EV requires three to four times the copper of a gas car. Every wind turbine, every solar installation, every grid upgrade must have copper.

And the world cannot produce enough of it. New mines take 15 to 30 years to permit and build. Ore grades are declining.

Costs have surged… brownfield expansions that cost $1 billion a decade ago now cost $1.6 billion.

The deficit is structural, and it isn't going away. The companies positioned on the right side of this equation are going to be some of the most important investments of the next decade.

For this reason, we still have copper exposure in the Premium portfolio. I won't name it here because it's an active position, but Premium Members know what it is and it remains in the portfolio.

The Scoreboard: Year One

We launched Moonshot Minute Premium in March of 2025. It’s our one-year anniversary. Let me show you where things stand. All of it, the good, bad, and ugly.

We've now closed eight positions.

Not a single loss among them. And the average gain on closed trades is 62.4%.

Four of those positions doubled.

When a position doubles, we execute what I call a Moonshot Ride, where we sell enough to recover our original investment and let the rest ride for free.

Those four positions are still open, still compounding, and our cost basis on every one of them is zero.

Gains of 88%, 100%, 108%, and 140% at the time we pulled capital. The current gains on those free rides are even higher, with one up over 133%, another over 122%.

The other closed positions delivered gains of 1.6%, 8.7%, 13.8%, and 37.7%. And now Foran at 42%.

Here's what the open portfolio looks like right now.

We have 23 open positions. Sixteen are in the green. Seven are in the red.

On the winning side, we have positions up 90%, 49%, 43%, 41%, 35%, 23%, 19%, 17%, 17%, 15%, and several smaller gains.

Several of these names are approaching Moonshot Ride territory. Two more are near the doubling threshold that triggers our free-ride framework.

On the losing side, and this is the part most newsletter writers would never show you, we have positions down 8%, 10%, 12%, 13%, 21%, 23%, and 33%.

Some are in sectors that have pulled back hard with the broader market. Some are early-stage names that haven't hit their catalysts yet.

I show you this because the losses are part of the system. They're the cost of being in the arena, and we have to come to terms with the fact that the markets won’t always agree, no matter how good the thesis.

But here's what matters… the math still works.

Across all 28 unique positions we've taken in Year One, 21 are winners, and 7 are losers. That's a 75% win rate so far.

But the win rate isn't even the most important number.

This is: In the open portfolio, our average winner is up 47%. Our average loser is down 17%. The winners are nearly three times the size of the losers.

Even including every loss, the open portfolio averages a gain of over 26% per position. That's not cherry-picked. That's every single name, winners and losers combined.

This is the power of asymmetry. You don't need to be right every time. You need your winners to be dramatically larger than your losers.

And you need a framework that includes entry discipline, stop losses, and Moonshot Rides to enforce that asymmetry mechanically, not emotionally.

Twelve months in, the framework is doing exactly what it was built to do.

What Comes Next

We're closing this copper position today, and I’ve laid out the details below in the Premium section.

But the copper supercycle is not over. If anything, the Eldorado deal, the tariffs, the Section 232 investigation, and the widening global deficit all confirm that we are still early in this cycle.

The next phase will be defined by several forces converging at once:

Emerging market demand is the anchor. Countries and regions representing two-thirds of global GDP growth over the next decade (India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America) are building out power grids, housing, and transportation infrastructure.

That demand is structural, and it doesn't depend on AI.

AI and data center demand are the accelerants. Even from a small base, data center copper consumption is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026 alone.

Every hyperscaler on the planet is racing to build.

Government policy is the amplifier. Section 232 tariffs on copper, critical mineral investigations, and Defense Production Act funding for domestic mining, to name a few.

Washington has woken up to the reality that you can't run a modern economy or a military without physical materials.

And the supply side cannot respond fast enough. The pipeline of new projects is thin. Permitting takes decades.

The world's largest copper mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, saw a major portion of production shut down after a mudslide last year. Disruptions in Chile and Peru continue. There is no quick fix.

This is the kind of setup that creates generational wealth for people who see it early and stay patient.

For the Free Readers

I've given you the thesis. I've shown you the scoreboard, including the wins and the losses. I've named the stock and shown you the math.

What I haven't given you are the other 23 positions in the portfolio. The names behind those Moonshot Rides. The entry prices. The stop levels. The next recommendation.

That's always been the deal. I showed you the supercycle. Premium Members are up 42%.

If you've been reading these essays and wondering whether Premium is worth it, ask yourself these two questions.

1. What would a 42% gain in six months be worth on even a small position?

2. What about four positions that have doubled and are now riding for free?

I can't promise every pick will work. No one can.

But I can promise the same level of research, the same discipline, and the same transparency that delivered these results in year one of publishing this research.

The next twelve months of this commodity cycle could be even more powerful than the first twelve.

You decide.

Double D

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