We Crushed the Market Doing One Thing Different

Our portfolio has returned over 21 percent since April 9, while the S&P 500 gained just 5.5 percent in the same period.

That means we're beating the S&P by over 288%.

This wasn’t luck. It came from making clear, deliberate moves based on what the macro environment told us.

We saw where capital was moving and got there first. We focused on assets that benefit from stress in the system, not just growth in the headlines.

Where We Placed Our Bets and Why:

1. Precious Metals: A Signal of Deep Concern

Gold and silver moved higher because investors were looking for stability.

The dollar dropped to its lowest point since early May. That makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors.

Add growing concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, ballooning deficits, and a credit rating downgrade, and it becomes clear why gold demand increased.

China’s central bank bought 95 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2025 alone.

Silver also rallied. The gold-silver ratio reached 100 to 1. The long-term average over the past several decades has hovered closer to 65 to 1. The 20th-century average is less than 50 to 1.

When the ratio hits 100, it signals a historic level of dislocation, but it rarely stays there for long.

That gap is like a stretched rubber band. Eventually, it snaps back. I think silver has room to run, and I’m looking for more exposure here to take advantage of this situation.

2. Bitcoin: Institutional Validation

Bitcoin has outperformed gold since early April.

Institutional investors are now treating it as a macro hedge. The U.S. government has even established a strategic bitcoin reserve, and Texas just passed a strategic reserve bill headed to the Governor for a likely signature.

Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. It’s a legitimate alternative in a world questioning traditional stores of value. I’ve been saying this for a long time: owning Bitcoin is no longer an option.

As liquidity conditions improve globally, Bitcoin is picking up tailwinds from a monetary and sentiment standpoint.

3. European Financials: A Turnaround Story Most Ignored

European financial stocks are up sharply.

In Q1, European ETFs saw record inflows of $10.6 billion. That tells us capital is moving back into the region.

These stocks gained over 20-30 percent during that period, benefiting from stronger-than-expected economic performance and improved earnings.

While U.S. markets remained fixated on the Fed, Europe started to surprise to the upside.

We focused on where the pressure points were building: currency risk, fiscal instability, and regional recovery outside the U.S.

We didn’t bet on hype. We made moves based on data and behavior: central banks buying gold, institutions and governments adopting bitcoin, and flows reversing into Europe.

We didn’t need to predict this, speculate, hope, or wish. All we did was follow the evidence and the visible signals.

A Rare Warning

This is not the end. It’s the setup. But be very, very careful.

The dollar remains weak. Fiscal uncertainty continues. Liquidity is rising globally. That combination tends to drive asset prices higher, but not all assets. Only the ones positioned to benefit from the breakdown of old assumptions.

The next move could be more aggressive than the last. Because the capital on the sidelines is still looking for a home.

You can wait and hope the market gives you another entry point. Or you can start getting positioned now.

We are still early in this cycle. Not in terms of calendar time, but in terms of capital allocation. Most investors are still holding back. Most institutions are still slow to act.

That won’t last.

The choices made now will look obvious in hindsight.

Stay focused. Stay informed. And keep positioning into strength.

Double D

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