Nvidia's $2 Billion Just Paid Us Twice

Friday's close put one of the most speculative positions I have ever added to the Moonshot Portfolio at 137% above our entry price. It’s the third recommendation that has doubled this month in April, and the second that’s doubled in 9 days on the same underlying thesis.

Premium Members: scroll to the Premium section at the bottom of this issue for your full action plan on Moonshot Ride #7, including the Monday-open execution instructions and share-level math.

Below, I’m sharing the principle that produced both Moonshot Rides in the first place. It is something you can apply right now, to themes that are still early, in your own portfolio, without waiting for me to send you a name.

The Job Is Three Things

When you correctly identify a structural force playing out over years, the thesis doesn’t just pay off once. It pays off multiple times, in directions you cannot predict in advance.

Picking the stock is the easy part, and most people skip straight to it, but the actual job is three things.

The first is identifying the force itself. A structural force is a multi-year reshaping of an industry that the market is treating as a short-term trend. Photonics was one example. Gold, silver, copper, and critical minerals are others. The defining feature is that the demand is structural, the supply takes years to build, and the consensus has not yet caught up.

The second is sizing for the volatility you are about to live through. Structural shifts do not move in straight lines. They move in violent zig-zags as the consensus refuses to accept what is happening.

Size too big and the volatility will shake you out before the thesis resolves. Size too small and the eventual win will not change your life.

The third job is holding when the thesis hasn’t broken, even though the chart looks like it has. This is the part nobody talks about, and it is where almost everyone fails.

Two Doubles, One Thesis, Nine Days

On July 14, 2025, I published an essay called The Invisible Backbone of the AI Revolution. The thesis was that copper interconnects could not carry data fast enough at AI scale, and photonics, meaning light-based interconnects, would replace them at the core of every AI data center on Earth.

At the time I published that essay, the Moonshot Portfolio was already holding a large-cap position in that theme. We had entered it five weeks earlier at a price Wall Street thought was fair, and I thought was cheap.

Nine days after the essay published, I added a second position to the same theme: a sub-$1 billion photonics specialist trading under $7 a share. I sized it at 1 to 2 percent of portfolio value and set a wide trailing stop from cost basis. And I told Premium members to expect volatility. A lot of it.

For most of the next nine months, this company was underwater. At its worst, it was down more than 40% from our entry. We held the position because the thesis had not broken.

Meanwhile, the large-cap was compounding steadily. It posted earnings beats, accelerating revenue, and steadily climbing data center exposure. Then in early April, one of the largest AI companies on the planet, Nvidia, committed $2 billion in strategic capital to it and announced a multi-year partnership covering custom AI chips, networking, and silicon photonics. The large-cap crossed the 100% threshold, and we hit our Moonshot Ride #6 on April 15.

They acquired a smaller photonics company earlier this year. That acquired company was a named launch customer of our small-cap, which I had flagged in the original buy alert. This week, the small-cap's CTO confirmed that orders are live and growing inside the acquirer's ecosystem. The stock took off from its low, and by Friday's close, it was 137% above our entry.

And now this is Moonshot Ride #7.

The same thesis paid us twice, nine days apart, through a chain of events nobody could have mapped in advance back in July when I first started talking about it.

That’s what a correctly identified structural force does. It compounds in directions you can’t predict, which is why the discipline is to hold the thesis, not to predict the path. Your job is NOT to try to predict.

Three Structural Forces I'm Watching Now

The same framework drives what I write about every week in this newsletter.

If you have been reading me for some time, you’ve seen me publish on three structural forces over and over: the commodity supercycle in gold, silver, copper, and critical minerals; the broader AI and data center infrastructure buildout; and the structural shift in cybersecurity toward autonomous defense.

Each has the same shape that photonics did in July 2025 when I first identified it.

In commodities, the structural force is the rebuilding of Western industrial capacity combined with two decades of underinvestment in mining capex.

New mines take five to ten years to bring online. Demand is being driven by physical electrification, defense rebuilds, data center power, and central bank gold accumulation. The consensus is still treating this as a cyclical bounce.

The data is telling you it is not. Two of our best performers in this theme are currently sitting on triple-digit gains, and I had to walk subscribers through three meaningful drawdowns to get there.

In AI and data center infrastructure, the bottleneck is no longer the GPU. It is the power delivery, the cooling, the memory bandwidth, the networking fabric, and the construction capacity to physically build the data centers.

Each of those subsegments has its own structural setup, with names that do not look like AI plays at first glance. We are positioned in several of them. None have moved in a straight line. All of them have the potential to compound the same way photonics just did.

In cybersecurity, AI is simultaneously creating new attack surfaces and obsoleting the legacy detection tools defending against them. The migration from legacy SIEM and EDR products to autonomous endpoint defense is a multi-year capex cycle for every Fortune 1000 company. We are positioned in this theme. The stock hasn’t yet done what photonics just did, but the thesis has not broken either.

In every one of those themes, the same pattern applies. Identify the force. Size for the volatility. Hold the thesis until something breaks it. The payoffs come in directions and sequences that neither you nor I, nor my team, can predict, which is exactly why most investors miss them.

If you’re a free subscriber and you don’t do anything else with this essay, at least do this one thing. Pick one structural force you actually believe in. Size your position so the volatility cannot shake you out. Do not sell because the chart turned ugly. Sell only if the thesis breaks.

The Hardest Part Is Holding

Picking the stock is easy. Sitting through the months when the thesis is right, but the price is going against you, is the part that breaks people.

Last October, when our latest Moonshot Ride was down 40%, my inbox filled with emails saying the trade was dead, that the market was telling us we were wrong, and that the prudent thing was to take the loss.

Every one of those emails came from someone watching the chart instead of the thesis.

The thesis had not broken, the company had not lost a single customer, and the technology roadmap had not been displaced. The only thing that had changed was the price, and price tells you almost nothing about whether a structural thesis will resolve in your favor.

This is the discipline most investors lack, and it is the only reason a 137% gain is sitting in the Moonshot Portfolio today instead of a 30 percent loss booked in a panic last fall.

If you are reading this as a free subscriber, the framework above is yours. The three themes I named are themes you can act on without me, today, with whatever tools and conviction you have.

What Premium gives you is the specific names, the entry prices, the position sizes, the stops, the Moonshot Ride alerts when a position doubles, the sell alerts when a thesis breaks, and the full portfolio with real-time guidance on every position, including the two photonics names that just produced back-to-back Moonshot Rides on the same thesis.

Here is what the full Premium portfolio looks like today.

All seven Moonshot Rides are riding on house money, with the top of the group up around 185% and today’s addition up 137%.

We have closed 11 trades since I launched Premium in March 2025, every single one a winner.

Four open positions are currently underwater, with the worst down nearly 33% and another down 18%. They have been visible in the Premium portfolio the entire time, because I publish wins and losses alike.

But this is where math works in our favor. Our average winner is up nearly 74%, our average loser is down 17%, and our winners are running nearly 4.5 times the size of our losers.

That is what this framework produces over thirteen months.

One practical note for anyone on the fence.

Premium pricing goes up next week. Every current subscriber stays grandfathered at their current rate for as long as they remain subscribed, a commitment I have never broken and am not going to break now. In fact, we have a group of subscribers paying just $15/month and they will never pay more so long as they remain.

Anyone who joins before the increase takes effect is grandfathered at today's rate too. But once the increase hits, that is it. No extensions, no grace period, and no coming back to today's rate later.

If you’ve been reading Moonshot Minute and waiting for the right moment to subscribe, this is the last window at the current price. It closes this week.

Premium Members, scroll below for the full action plan on Moonshot Ride #7, including the name, the exact share-level math on what to sell and what to hold at Monday's open, and my view on whether the trade still has a case for new entries at current prices.

As always, please email me and let me know how you did. The team and I love reading your notes, and it makes us very proud to see how so many of you have benefited from the late nights.

Double D

🔓 Premium Content Begins Here 🔒