ALERT: A new buy alert. A word on Tuesday's inflation numbers

PREMIUM MEMBERS: PLEASE SCROLL BELOW TO THE PREMIUM SECTION WHERE YOU WILL FIND A NEW BUY ALERT

Your Savings Account Is Losing Money

Your grocery bill is up. Your gas is up. Your insurance renewed at 15% higher and nobody could explain why. The raise you got this year didn't cover the increase in the things you actually buy. You already knew all of this. You've been living it.

Tuesday the government confirmed it. April's Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8%, the highest reading since May 2023. Gasoline up 28% from a year ago. Food at home jumped the most in a single month since August 2022.

Real wages, meaning what your paycheck actually buys after adjusting for inflation, fell.

The Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates. Bank of America has pushed its first rate cut forecast to the second half of 2027. The relief everyone has been waiting for is at least a year away.

And even when it comes, it won't undo the damage already done.

30% Since 2020. And It Never Comes Back Down.

When inflation "cools," people assume prices come back down. They never do. Inflation is cumulative. Every month of elevated prices builds on the month before it.

A 2% reading next year would be celebrated as progress, but that 2% stacks on top of this month's 3.8%, which stacked on last month's 3.3%, which stacked on everything that came before that.

Since January 2020, the cumulative increase in the Consumer Price Index is nearly 30%.

A dollar today buys what 77 cents bought five and a half years ago. Your salary would have needed to grow 30% just to stay even. For most Americans, it didn't.

The gallon of milk that cost $3.60 in 2020 costs $4.07 today. It will never cost $3.60 again. When the Fed eventually gets inflation back to 2%, that just means milk goes from $4.07 to $4.15 next year instead of $4.22. The baseline never resets.

The fire may eventually slow down, but the house already burned. Every month that passes at elevated levels makes the loss of purchasing power permanent.

The question is what you do about it.

13 Months of Receipts

Understanding what the Moonshot Minute editorial team got right, and when, tells you something important about what's coming next.

Thirteen months ago, the very first essay on this free list argued that a 40-year disinflationary cycle had broken.

That hard assets were about to outperform financial assets. That gold, silver, and the miners producing them were the place to be while the rest of the market chased AI chatbot stocks. Precious metals positions entered the portfolio that same week.

By June, the thesis had expanded. Some of you remember "$200 Pizza and the Death of the Dollar." I wrote that essay three times because the math kept getting worse.

The dollar was losing purchasing power at a pace the government's numbers were understating, and you could feel it at the grocery store, the gas station, the insurance bill that jumped for no stated reason.

Tuesday's CPI, 3.8% headline, food at home up 0.7% in a single month, gasoline up 28% year over year, is the government catching up to what that essay described thirteen months ago.

By fall, the coverage had moved into commodity supply chains. Critical minerals. The metals that go into every missile, every solar panel, every EV battery, every data center.

I argued that a commodity supercycle was forming because demand from AI infrastructure, military reshoring, and energy transition was accelerating while mine supply was flat or declining.

The portfolio added commodity exposure. One of those positions was acquired at a 42% premium five months later.

By November, the newsletter was writing about the electrical grid buckling under AI power demand.

By March, it was cybersecurity and the Iran-linked attack on Stryker. Each theme built on the one before it, and each one led to positions in the portfolio.

Every one of those arguments was published right here, on the free list, months before the market confirmed them. Every one of them led to portfolio action. And every one of those positions is in the green today.

The Portfolio Was Built for This Number

The hard-asset and commodity positions in this portfolio, the ones built on the inflation thesis since launch, are doing exactly what they were designed to do.

Twelve positions tied to gold, silver, miners, energy, and critical minerals. Ten of the twelve are in the green. Four have more than doubled. Five are up more than 50%.

Several have been trimmed as moonshot rides after doubling, meaning Premium members pulled their original capital off the table and are riding the rest at zero cost basis.

Two of the twelve are red. I'm not hiding that. But a portfolio where ten of twelve commodity positions are green, four of them are up 100%+, and the closed trades are twelve for twelve with zero losses is a portfolio built on a thesis that's working.

Most of those positions were entered in the first six months of the portfolio's existence, when gold was out of fashion and the S&P was hitting highs on momentum alone.

Tuesday's CPI confirmed that the thesis behind those positions is still accelerating.

The Math You Should Do Tonight

If you have money in a high-yield savings account earning 4.5%, you probably feel like you're doing the right thing.

After Tuesday's 3.8% inflation print, the real return on that account is 0.7%. After taxes on the interest, you're losing purchasing power while the account balance tells you you're earning it.

Run it forward. At 3.8% annual inflation sustained for three years, $100,000 in cash buys what $89,000 buys today.

You didn't spend the money. You didn't make a bad investment.

You did the "safe" thing, and the inflation tax took $11,000 of your purchasing power while the account balance barely moved.

Now look at your brokerage account. Look at your 401(k). How much of it is allocated to assets that benefit from inflation rather than assets that get eroded by it?

Most Americans are running a portfolio designed for the world that existed from 1982 to 2020.

The classic 60/40 split, 60% stocks and 40% bonds, was built for a four-decade stretch of falling interest rates and declining inflation.

In that environment, bonds rose when stocks fell, creating a natural hedge. The 60/40 portfolio worked beautifully for 40 years.

That world is over. When inflation is persistent and rates stay high, bonds lose value alongside stocks. The hedge breaks. The "balanced" portfolio becomes an unbalanced loss on both sides.

2022 was the proof, when stocks and bonds fell together for the first time in decades. We're in the same regime now, and Tuesday's number confirmed it.

The question to ask yourself tonight: am I a producer or a consumer of the things getting more expensive?

Companies that produce gold, silver, copper, uranium, oil, and the infrastructure that delivers them have pricing power. When the things they sell get more expensive, their revenue and margins expand.

Companies that consume those inputs absorb the cost increases, which compress their margins and punish their stock prices.

Most portfolios are loaded with the consumers. The Moonshot Minute portfolio is loaded with the producers. That single distinction explains most of the performance gap you saw in the section above.

Free Thinking. Premium Action.

Everything you just read, the cumulative inflation math, the 60/40 breakdown, the producer-over-consumer framework, was published here for free.

If you applied that framework to your own portfolio tonight, you'd already be ahead of most investors who are still waiting for rate cuts that may not come until 2027.

That's what the free list does. It teaches you how to think about markets so you're never blindsided by a number like Tuesday's.

Premium is where the thinking becomes specific. Names, entry prices, buy-under levels, position sizing, trim alerts, sell alerts, and moonshot ride management.

The past six weeks alone produced a 42% gain on a takeover, three consecutive triple-digit closes, and a 137% exit on a position held just under ten months.

Twelve closed trades total, twelve winners, zero losses. Five positions riding on house money at zero cost basis. An average closed gain around 74%.

The producer-over-consumer question you just learned has a specific answer in every position in this portfolio. The next twelve months of this inflationary cycle will produce the same kind of opportunities.

The question is whether you'll be positioned for them or reading about them afterward.

One More Thing

On Wednesday, the editorial team added a new name to the Moonshot Minute watchlist in the quantum security space.

Premium members received the full write-up and the conditions that will trigger a buy alert, which could come any day.

If you missed Wednesday's issue, go back and read it. The quantum thesis and the inflation thesis are running on parallel tracks, both driven by the same force: the world is changing faster than the institutions protecting your money can adapt.

Double D

🔓 Premium Content Begins Here 🔒